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July steel prices go over a hundred dollars, August would be higher

Time:2016-08-02 15:43:58

July domestic steel prices upward shocks. As of July 31, the National HRB400 (20mm) rebar average price of 2496 yuan / ton, the month is up 157 yuan / ton; 4.75mm hot rolled coil average price reported 2683 yuan / ton, the month is up 120 yuan / ton ; National 20mm plate average price 2631 yuan / ton, the month is up 169 yuan / ton; 1.0mm cold rolled coil average price of 3112 yuan / ton, the month is up 145 yuan / ton.

Into August, even though the steel market is still in the traditional off-season, the downward pressure on the domestic economy is still large, but due to "environmental investigator initiated the steel industry shrink the supply side," the major positive news, the market is generally optimistic about steel prices in August. According to Mysteel survey, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, Henan, steel mills were forced to cut production, intermediate frequency furnace steel mills has been particularly evident.

The high temperature heat, flood disasters, July manufacturing and construction were affected to some extent. China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the production index, new orders index, new export orders index was 52.1%, 50.4%, 49% decline the previous month 0.4,0.1 and 0.6 percentage points. In the same month, the construction industry business activity index was 61.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; construction of new orders index was 56.5%, 2.3 percentage points lower than the month.

However, employees in the manufacturing sector index increased in July from 0.3 to 48.2 percent, production and business activity index is expected to increase from 1.9 to 55.3 percent, indicating that business confidence in the future development has been enhanced. Meanwhile, the proactive fiscal policy and post-disaster reconstruction, the construction boom is expected in August is still high. In the short-term efforts to increase production, while downstream steel demand little fluctuation is expected in August steel market supply and demand pressures are still small.

After years of de-stocking, steel mills and traders this year, inventories decreased significantly. According to Mysteel latest survey, as of July 27, 2016, 139 building manufacturers steel stocks 3,664,900 tons, representing a decrease of 8.7% over the same period last year; as of July 29, 2016, the major cities of 8.847 million tons of steel stocks a year earlier, down 24.3%.

Although the July floods, heavy rains curb some of the market demand, leading to short-term upward pressure on steel stocks, steel stocks, but overall still low, market sentiment to improve, steel mills, large traders, parties and other hot money pushing up strong willingness.

August 1 Shagang introduced in early August, prices of construction materials, steel prices rose 70 yuan, high wire, plate, screw price rose 30 yuan. Among them, Sha Steel 20mm rebar price of 2480 yuan / ton, compared with the Hangzhou market varieties high 50 yuan / ton, the late steel market cautious optimism. On the same day, SCREW 1610 contract, contract closing price of 1610 volumes were approaching 2,500 yuan / ton and 2700 yuan / ton.

In short, "low inventory" is the steel stabilizer, "green investigations" is the steel propeller, "is expected to improve manufacturing, construction continued expansion" is the kinetic energy of steel, coupled with building materials enterprises - Shagang up price, further boosted market confidence, short-term steel or stronger shocks.

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